This …. from the Christie camp

The following is a memo from Bill Septien, Christie campaign manager:

Today’s Quinnipiac Poll showing Chris Christie with a 10 point lead over Jon Corzine (47%-37%) and maintaining a lead in all 8 public surveys conducted in August makes clear that Jon Corzine’s negative attacks and attempts at character assassination have not been working. It’s part of a trend that began with the August 25th released Rasmussen poll showing Chris leading Jon Corzine 47%-36%, the first poll to suggest that we’ve been able to weather the 11-1 spending, disadvantage this summer and that New Jersey voters are not buying into our opponents accelerated attacks.

While we have seen a slight drop in the Rasmussen poll from a 13 point lead to an 11 point lead, this should be expected as we will continue to see the numbers tighten as we head closer to the election. The primary reason for this is because Democrats, with whom Corzine has soft support, will likely “come home” to their candidate in large part due to the avalanche of Corzine’s ads and other spending attempting to brand Chris along exaggerated partisan lines. Despite this assumption, there is no evidence that Corzine has the strong fundamental support needed to put together a winning coalition. The reasons for this include:

The current right direction/wrong track numbers for the state of New Jersey, which are always a referendum on the incumbent party, have reached Bush-like levels in his second term. On average, only 20% of all voters believe things are going in the right direction, while 65% believe things in the state are off on the wrong track. These numbers are similar to Eagleton polling numbers in 1993 during the Florio Administration.

Governor Corzine’s image ratings are worse than Jim Florio’s in the summer of 1993. According to the 1993 June/July Eagleton poll, Florio had a 37% favorable rating, with 39% being unfavorable. According to the Quinnipiac poll from early August (8/5-8/9), over half of those surveyed (54%) have an unfavorable impression of Jon Corzine, with just 37% viewing the governor favorably.

Not only has Chris beaten Corzine in virtually every public poll conducted this year, but Corzine has not even cracked the 40% mark in most of these polls – indicating a very vulnerable incumbent. In comparison, the Eagleton poll conducted in the summer of 1993 showed Jim Florio heading into Labor Day with a one-point lead over Christie Whitman. In 2009, Corzine has trailed Christie consistently in the last 30 public polls, with Christie heading into Labor Day with an average lead of 8 percentage points for the month of August. *

*Christie’s average 8-point lead over Jon Corzine is based on polls conducted by FDU, Quinnipiac, GQR, Rasmussen and Daily Kos/2000 throughout the month of August.

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About fsnowflack
Fred Snowflack was editorial page editor and a political columnist for the Daily Record of Morristown for almost 12 years. He has won numerous awards for editorial and column writing from the New Jersey Press Association and has written a blog on county and state politics for the last three years. He lives in Ledgewood in Morris County.

16 Responses to This …. from the Christie camp

  1. P says:

    According to TedLogic, this must mean that Christie’s internals show him Light Years behind Corzine –

    Christie campaign wants a third debate on Oct. 22 now that Corzine’s schedule is free
    . by Max Pizarro, PolitickerNJ.com

    Riding the latest Quinnipiac University poll numbers that show their candidate leading by ten points, and buoyed by the New Jersey Network’s decision to withdraw a request to change a debate date to suit Gov. Jon Corzine, the Chris Christie campaign continued to push back aggressively at the governor this afternoon.

    Seizing on the latter news, Christie Campaign Manager Bill Stepien said “While we’re glad that Governor Corzine’s schedule has suddenly cleared and allowed him to participate in the previously scheduled Oct. 1st debate, it appears his schedule is also open for a debate on Oct. 22nd. Chris would welcome the opportunity to add a third debate to the schedule, and I’m sure the voters of New Jersey agree.

    “New Jersey is facing the highest property taxes in the country, 9.3 percent unemployment and a government that just isn’t working. The voters of our state deserve more debate on these vital issues, not less. We challenge Governor Corzine to use his open schedule on Oct. 22nd to continue the conversation with the New Jersey’s voters and meet Chris for a third debate.”

    Earlier today, the network dropped its request to the Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) to reschedule an Oct. 1 debate for October 22, a debate change desired by the governor that met with caustic criticism from both Christie and independent candidate Chris Daggett.

    After Corzine yesterday issued statements indicating that he would participate in a debate regardless of the date, NJN withdrew its request for a change of date. At the vesry least, the network will hold the originally scheduled Election Law Enforcement Commission debate on Oct. 1.

  2. Ted says:

    Pbrain, Politicker is one the Fox news wannabes. Instead of cut ‘n pasting wingnut opinion pieces try legitimate news venues.

  3. Ted says:

    Fred, the memo’s conclusions are Christie’s spin. My initial reaction is: why is Christie’s campaign telling Corzine what isn’t working? Do they want Corzine to change to a winning strategy? Why would Christie do that?

  4. P says:

    It’s called political posturing, and all the campaigns do it. He’s some of Corzine’s wishful thinking –

    Dems disappointed, but not crushed, by lack of poll movementDemocratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan, however, says that he and other Democrats are not worried.

    “We have a campaign strategy that lays out how to get to our vote goal numbers. It lays it out pretty carefully. I admit it’s internal, but I think party folks in particular have seen part of what we’ve laid out so far and its intended consequences. So I think people understand we’re going to get to where we need to be,” Cryan said.

    Privately, some Democrats express concern and disappointment that the horse race numbers have not moved. But the renewed sense of optimism about Corzine’s chances — which came after morale bottomed out in the wake of July’s “Corruption Thursday” bust of mostly Democratic politicians — has not disappeared.

    One Democrat from a must-win county for Corzine said that one key strategy is simple and appears to be working so far, since Christie’s negatives have increased. Democrats hope to poke holes in Christie’s reputation to suppress voter turnout on election day, allowing the state’s Democratic machines – if they work as well as they have for the last several election cycles – to turn out the base for Corzine.

    Others say that the negative news on Christie may take a little more time to sink in.

    “I know it’s cliché to say that two months is an eternity in politics, but in this case it’s true,” said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, who is not involved in the Corzine campaign.

    But Roginsky stressed that the Corzine campaign needs to do more than convince New Jerseyans not to vote for Christie.

    “What he needs to do is reinforce and build up his positive, build up Christie’s negatives, like he has, and then continue to be on the offensive, and that’s when those numbers move,” she said.

    That’s where jobs come in, according to Democratic operative Pat Politano, who works for local parties and candidates in Union and Monmouth counties.

    “The campaign must be about who can create and maintain good paying jobs in New Jersey. That’s the way we win. That’s what they trust us on, always have trusted us on. That’s what we have to talk about,” he said. ed note – how’s Corzine being doing for the past four years . . don’t ask . . !

    Among Chrisie’s vulnerable spots in this area is his statement during the Republican primary that he would reject the portion of the federal stimulus funds for New Jersey that had “strings attached.” Corzine has touted the recent creation of 13,000 new private sector jobs in the state, even though the overall unemployment rate increased, although it has not been central to the campaign strategy.

    Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy, who last month moved the race’s rating from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up,” said that the spate of negative news and advertisements about Christie gave her pause, making her reassess her decision to move the rating “on a micro level.” (Duffy is more reluctant to discount the effect of Corzine’s wealth on the race than her counterparts at the Rothenberg Political Report and Congressional Quarterly, who both currently rate the race in Christie’s favor).

    Today’s polls reaffirmed Duffy’s rating, but she does not think Christie has shown himself impervious to the damage of negative news cycles. Corzine’s advertisement released yesterday, she said, repackages Christie’s $46,000 loan to former First Assistant U.S. Attorney Michele Brown in a way that could damage Christie – even if today’s Quinnipiac poll found that voters narrowly considered attacking Christie based on the loan unfair.

    Cozine’s new ad says that Christie, in not reporting the loan on disclosure forms or paying tax on the $420 he made in interest, has “one set of rules for himself, another for everyone else.”

    “Now that it’s been packaged and I’m going to assume focused-grouped to death, I want to see what it does,” said Duffy.

  5. Ted says:

    Thanks for restating my conclusion of political posturing but the rest of your post was pure BLATHER designed to keep ads in front of those who hit the site

  6. P says:

    Oh, that’s what your post was about. Can you provide us with a Ted -> English dictionary so we can all understand what you are writing.

    BTW – What’s the deal with your latest inanity – “Ads?” What ads? Do you see something the rest of us don’t? Maybe it’s Nap Time?

  7. Ted says:

    My post was 35 words. Which word did you have trouble with? Your blather amounted to 676 words. If read by each hit, a lot of time is spent staring at that MorrisHomePros ad…plus the time I take to respond. It all calculates to ad rate increases

  8. P says:

    Sometimes Less is really Less. “If read by each hit?!” Is that English?

    As far as the “ads” – Never noticed them. I’m focused on my work, like Bill Clinton and his laser beam-like focus on the economy. You need to do the same. Isn’t that what you’re always exalting me to do ObiTed (or is it TedKanobi)?

  9. Pingback: Twitted by fredsnowflack

  10. vakuolo says:

    Happy Labor Day!

  11. P says:

    Great job by the governor keeping NJ “out of trouble” in these trying economic times! Good thing he saw the recession on his “radar”, otherwise we might have fallen to 10th or 20th, not just from 2nd to 5th.

    Also wonder how much the loss in median income is because the people making the most money just left the state. Pennsylvania only saw a 1.1% decline. Maybe NJ can find a way to charge the transplanted NJsians even after they leave the state. It may be Corzine’s only hope to get his budget anywhere near in-balance.

    Census reports sharp plunge in N.J.’s median income level
    By Andrew Kitchenman

    9/11/2009

    The median New Jersey household saw its income drop by the largest amount of any state when comparing the last two years to the previous two, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    The census released an annual report examining income, poverty and health insurance on Thursday. New Jersey’s median income fell from an inflation-adjusted $71,284 in 2005-06 to $64,070 in 2007-08, according to the report. In comparison, the national median fell $50, from $51,283 to $51,233.

    The state fell to the fifth-highest median income, behind New Hampshire, Maryland, Connecticut and Alaska, according to report. Over a three-year period, from 2006 to 2008, New Jersey had remained second highest, after New Hampshire.

    Other findings:

    — The percentage of New Jersey residents below the federal poverty level is 9.2 percent, seventh-lowest in the country. The portion of residents rises to 21.9 percent below twice the poverty level, or $44,100 for a family of four.

    — The number of New Jerseyans who are uninsured is 1.2 million, or 14.1 percent of the state’s population. This level was 26th-lowest of the 47 states with large enough statistical samples.

    E-mail Andrew Kitchenman at akitchenman@njbiz.com

  12. P says:

    CORRECTIONS –

    Link to PDF with data is here – http://www.mediacurves.com/pdf/ReportJ7541.pdf

    Web page with commercial is here – http://www.mediacurves.com/Politics/J7541-AnitCorzineAd/

  13. P says:

    CORRECTIONS –

    Link to PDF with data is here – http://www.mediacurves.com/pdf/ReportJ7541.pdf

  14. Dirnov says:

    Super post, Need to mark it on Digg
    Dirnov

  15. Bodyc says:

    Ugh, I liked! So clear and positively.

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